Key Battles in the Ashes 2023: Stokes vs. Green, Boland vs. Bazball

Can Ben Stokes or Cameron Green Determine the Outcome of the Men’s Ashes?

The upcoming men’s Ashes in 2023 holds the potential for captivating battles that could shape the destiny of cricket’s most celebrated contest. While much attention has been focused on England’s style of play against Australia, there are other factors that will influence the ultimate victors. In collaboration with Cricviz, Sport Newes Center has examined the critical battlegrounds that will define this series.

England’s Dominating Batting Approach: Will It Work Against Australia?

Let’s start with the most obvious aspect—the explosive batting display of England. Under the leadership of captain Ben Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum, England’s fortunes have soared, decimating oppositions in Manchester, Multan, and Mount Maunganui. Over the past year, England has played 13 Tests under Stokes and McCullum, scoring at a remarkable rate of 4.85 runs per over, surpassing the next fastest-scoring team, Australia, by a whole run.

Their remarkable achievements include chasing down 299 runs in 50 overs against New Zealand at Trent Bridge, a blistering 378 runs in 77 overs to defeat India at Edgbaston, and a staggering 506-4 on the first day against Pakistan in Rawalpindi. England’s swashbuckling style thrives when the ball moves less, as observed during last summer’s home Tests when Bazball emerged. However, the upcoming series presents even better conditions for England, as swing and seam movement has reduced compared to the previous year.

England’s batting strike rate by length vs. pace under McCullum & Stokes:

• Full length: Average – 41.30, Strike rate – 94
• Good length: Average – 33.06, Strike rate – 52
• Short length: Average – 43.04, Strike rate – 85

Australia’s Formidable Bowling Attack: Can England Counter?

The variable that may sway the series is the arrival of Australia’s formidable bowling attack, arguably the best in the world. Can England successfully counter Pat Cummins and company? Under the stewardship of Stokes and McCullum, England’s batting strategy revolves around positive intent rather than recklessness. They exploit any slight error from the bowlers, staying committed to scoring runs at every opportunity.

The data shows that England is most honest against pace bowlers who maintain a good length. Over the past year, when bowlers hit this length (pitching 6-8 meters in front of the batter), England averages 33.06 with a strike rate of 52 runs per 100 balls. If bowlers go too full, England’s average rises to 41, and if they go too short, the average climbs to 43.

In this regard, Australia’s Scott Boland becomes crucial for their bowling lineup. With a career percentage of 53% deliveries on a good length, Boland has the highest percentage among all bowlers worldwide since 2006. He has an impressive record against England, taking 18 wickets at an average of just 9.55. Josh Hazlewood (43%) and Pat Cummins (36%) are the next most effective bowlers in hitting a good length, while Mitchell Starc (29%) tends to be less likely to do so.

The Battle of the All-Rounders: Stokes vs. Green

The contest between England captain Ben Stokes and Australian all-rounder Cameron Green adds another layer of intrigue to the series. Historically, England has often had the premier all-rounder in Ashes contests. However, since Cameron Green’s Test debut in December 2020, he has outperformed Stokes in terms of both batting and bowling averages. Green’s impact has been significant, with Australia losing only three Tests out of the 21 he has played. Moreover, his versatility adds value, as he brings the equivalent of three fielders to the gully position.

Stokes’ left knee injury remains a concern, raising doubts about his availability for the entire series. Nevertheless, Stokes’ influence as England captain should not be underestimated and could be a decisive factor in winning the Ashes.

The Opening Conundrum: Opportunities for Crawley, Duckett, Warner, and Khawaja

Both England and Australia face uncertainties in their opening partnerships. In the first Test at Edgbaston, Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley will face a stern test for England, while David Warner and Usman Khawaja will open for Australia. Duckett’s attacking mindset outside the off stump will be challenged, and Crawley’s recent half-century against Ireland was marred by inside edges. Warner, on the brink of retirement, struggled with an average of 9.5 in England four years ago, while Khawaja’s average of 17.78 in England raises questions.

Interestingly, recent series have shown that a solid opening partnership is not a prerequisite for winning an Ashes series in the UK. Since 2001, the best average by an opener on either side was Justin Langer’s 55, achieved in 2005 when Australia lost the series. The next best average belongs to Chris Rogers with 50, but he also failed to win either of his two series. Alastair Cook, an English legend, won all three home Ashes series as an opener but averaged less than 30. In the past 22 years, the average of an opening batter in Ashes Tests in the UK is 33.36, with openers from the losing team having a higher average than winners.

The Immovable Objects: England’s Challenge Against Australia’s Middle Order

England’s daunting task lies in finding a way to dismantle Australia’s formidable middle order. Marnus Labuschagne, ranked as the world’s top Test batter, is followed by Steve Smith, who is on track to become the most prolific Ashes run-scorer since Don Bradman. Travis Head, named player of the series in the last Ashes, occupies the fifth spot. England must devise specific plans to counter these three remarkable talents.

Labuschagne has shown vulnerability against deliveries bowled on a hard length, pitching 8-10 meters in front of him and moving away off the seam. He has been dismissed six times by such deliveries, averaging only 29. He has also struggled against high pace, falling nine times to deliveries above 140kph. Meanwhile, Smith thrives against the fastest bowlers, averaging 62. England’s best chance lies in deliveries on a good length that move back towards him.

Travis Head’s weakness against short-pitched bowling is evident from his tendency to play a false shot 31% of the time, higher than the 23% average for a top-seven batter. England possesses the dangerous bouncer expert Mark Wood, but his availability for all five Tests is uncertain. Another option could be Josh Tongue, who bowled more than half of his deliveries on Test debut against Ireland as short-pitched deliveries.

The Spin War: Lyon vs. Moeen

The spinners, Nathan Lyon and Moeen Ali, anticipate a tough challenge as they brace themselves for relentless attacks. Moeen acknowledges the impending challenge, having been hit hard by Australia in previous encounters. Lyon, with 487 Test wickets, enters the series as one of the most accomplished spinners in history. Moeen, who came out of a nearly two-year Test retirement, has been assigned the responsibility to fill the void left by Jack Leach’s injury.

Moeen’s average against Australia is nearly 65, with a strike rate exceeding 100. Although Moeen’s white-ball experience might aid him, his economy rate of 6.62 runs per over against advancing batters in Tests since 2018 is higher than Lyon’s 5.81. Even when batters stay on the back foot to handle spin, Moeen remains more expensive, conceding 3.73 runs per over compared to Lyon’s 2.05.

However, England’s primary concern will be the wickets taken by Moeen, and in this regard, he holds an advantage over Lyon with a career strike rate of 60.7 against Lyon’s 63.7.

A Simple Fact: The Importance of the First Test

In the grand scheme of Ashes history, winning the first Test has often proved crucial. Out of 71 series between England and Australia, the team that has won the opening Test has emerged victorious in 37 series. Since England’s legendary success in 2005, the team that lost the first Test has only won the series on three occasions out of the following nine series.

In essence, the outcome of the first Test at Edgbaston on Friday is likely to have a significant impact on the Ashes series, with the winners strongly positioned to claim the urn at The Oval in July.

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