Why did Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta choose David Raya over Aaron Ramsdale?

Why did Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta choose David Raya over Aaron Ramsdale? That’s the million-dollar question that has left Arsenal fans scratching their heads. It’s a conundrum that seems to defy logic and has raised eyebrows across the footballing world. As a journalist covering sports, it’s my duty to dive into this perplexing goalkeeper situation and try to make some sense of it.

Let’s start with the backdrop. Arsenal made the bold move to bring in David Raya on loan from Brentford in the summer, and Mikel Arteta talked about shaking things up by rotating him with Aaron Ramsdale. However, what we’ve seen on the pitch doesn’t quite align with the initial narrative.

First, it’s important to note that Ramsdale, the summer signing from Sheffield United, started the season as the first-choice goalkeeper. But since Raya’s debut against Everton on September 17th, Ramsdale has played just one league game, and that was against Brentford when Raya was ineligible. So, what’s the rationale behind this change?

The common argument is that Raya’s distribution is superior to Ramsdale’s. While this may be true to some extent, the difference doesn’t seem significant enough to warrant such a dramatic switch. These two goalkeepers are remarkably similar in many aspects of their play, both in terms of their past performances and their style on the field. So, why the sudden change?

One theory is that Arteta is trying to replicate a strategy he employed when signing Ramsdale in 2021, which led to Bernd Leno’s departure to Fulham. However, the circumstances were different back then. Leno wasn’t replaced because of his distribution; the team dynamics and playing style have evolved since then.

Now, let’s dissect the statistics. Ramsdale had a solid season in terms of making saves he was expected to in 2020-21. Statistically, he was over-performing by about 1% in relation to the quality of shots he faced. In contrast, Raya had a remarkable stint with Brentford, preventing a staggering +5.77 goals based on the quality of shots faced and their probability of going in.

But here’s the twist: Ramsdale’s performance in his second season with Arsenal hasn’t been as spectacular. He’s currently under-performing by the same metric, and it leaves us wondering why such a drastic change was made in the first place. What is Raya bringing to the table that Ramsdale couldn’t?

One noticeable issue with Raya has been his vulnerability during crosses, where he seems to get caught out positionally. This was evident in Arsenal’s 4-3 win against Luton on December 5th, where he was beaten to the ball by Elijah Adebayo. Could this be due to specific coaching instructions? It’s possible that Arteta or the goalkeeper coach, Inaki Cana, are emphasizing aggressive near-post challenges, but this might be causing some issues.

Competition for places is generally seen as healthy, but it can also lead to overly assertive decision-making. Both keepers may be trying too hard to secure the starting spot, potentially affecting their performance.

So, where does this leave us? It’s clear that Ramsdale has lost his relationship with the defense due to his limited playing time, which can be detrimental to a goalkeeper’s performance. While it’s challenging to quantify the impact of this with statistics, the connection between a goalkeeper and their defense is crucial.

To add to the complexity, Ramsdale is now under the microscope due to his infrequent appearances, with any error or bad decision magnified. It’s a tough spot for him to be in, and it’s essential to remember that a goalkeeper’s confidence and performance are heavily influenced by their manager’s trust and support.

In terms of their historical performances, Raya appears to be the calmer and more consistent of the two, while Ramsdale’s performance can be more volatile. However, the psychological aspect of the game, including trust and communication with coaches and managers, can play a significant role in a goalkeeper’s success.

In the end, the question shouldn’t just be about who is the better goalkeeper. Instead, we should focus on understanding the decisions and circumstances surrounding their performances. Arteta holds the key to this enigma, and it’s his vision and strategy that will ultimately define Arsenal’s goalkeeper situation. Ramsdale’s future, especially in the context of the England squad, hangs in the balance, and it remains to be seen how he will respond to this challenging situation.

Inaki Cana, Arsenal’s first-team goalkeeper coach, worked with Raya at Brentford but was at the club when they signed Ramsdale.

Arsenal goalkeeper coach Inaki Cana (l) and Gunners keeper Raya before the game against Brentford on 25 November. Ramsdale faced the Bees because Raya was ineligible to face his parent club

Presumably he had some input there as well, but Arteta obviously has the final say and I think my biggest takeaway from all this is that we have got this far into the season without really understanding what he is trying to do.

I even looked at Arsenal’s attacking output, in case Arteta might be thinking that Raya’s more consistent distribution would improve the team’s performance going forward – but the Gunners actually created more chances, and of higher quality, when Ramsdale was in the team.

Arsenal’s attack with Ramsdale and Raya (per 90 mins unless stated)
Premier LeagueRamsdale (2022-23)Raya (2023-24)
Minutes34201170
Open play sequences involved in21.6625.8
Shot-ending open play sequences0.920.46
Goal-ending open play sequences0.080
xG chain0.090.04
Overall xG per game1.91.75

The question I am constantly seeing discussed on this subject is, ‘so, who is better?’. But I think the discussion that needs to be happening is based on what is going on around their performances, and what difference Raya’s calmness brings to the side compared to Ramsdale’s eagerness.

As it stands, we are only really hearing from Arteta about it and, right from the start, it has been down to him to decide what he wants the story to be.

We are talking about a perfectionist of a manager and it is obviously fine margins that decide whether or not you win the Premier League or not.

But at the moment it feels like Arsenal’s failure in the final few weeks of last season is all being put on Ramsdale, which doesn’t seem fair.

I also don’t really believe Raya is that much better to make the difference in Arsenal’s title bid this time.

They are doing well with him in goal, of course, but they were top at this stage last season too with Ramsdale.

Ramsdale has lost relationship with his defence

The most frustrating thing about this scenario for Ramsdale is that it has happened through no fault of his own.

When he faced Fulham in August, he was criticised when Bukayo Saka’s wayward pass led to a counter-attacking goal from Andreas Pereira in the opening minute.

Ramsdale came out of his area to start Arsenal’s build-up from the back in the first minute of their game against Fulham in August, and played the ball to Jakub Kiwior, who is calling for it near the left-hand touchline

While Ramsdale would probably admit he could have done

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More about Goalkeeper Dilemma

• Arsenal’s Goalkeeper Situation – BBC Sport’s analysis of Arsenal’s goalkeeper dilemma.
• Aaron Ramsdale’s Performance – Goal.com’s breakdown of Aaron Ramsdale’s performance in the 2022-23 season.
• David Raya’s Impact – Sporting News discusses David Raya’s impact on Arsenal’s goalkeeping situation.
• Mikel Arteta’s Decision – TheScore analyzes Mikel Arteta’s role and decision-making in the goalkeeper switch.
• Competition in Goalkeeping – ESPN explores the effects of competition for places on goalkeepers’ performances.